Modern bioenergy

The role of modern bioenergy increases, underpinned by policies supporting its use

In Current Trajectory, modern bioenergy increases by around 30% (10EJ) out to 2035 and by a further 20% (8EJ) by 2050. As a result, the share of modern bioenergy in primary energy increases from 5% in 2023 to 8% by 2050.

Solid biomass

The most important source of growth is solid biomass (such as wood pellets, and forest and agriculture residues) which grows by around a third over the outlook in Current Trajectory. Solid biomass is used mainly in the industrial sector as a low-emissions alternative to coal and natural gas to fuel high-temperature heat processes, especially in cement production and in the food and paper industries, as well as in the power sector as an alternative to traditional thermal power.

Biofuels

The use of biofuels, derived largely from first-generation feedstocks, accounted for around 15% of modern bioenergy in 2023, with almost all of that consumed within road transport, underpinned by blending mandates for liquid fuels.

Biofuels demand increases by around 45% by 2035 in Current Trajectory. Some of this increase stems from the growing use of biofuels in road transport, supported by higher blending mandates in some emerging economies. But the growth of biofuels in road transport is constrained by the relatively flat outlook for liquid road fuels overall (see Oil).

Instead, the biggest source of growth in biofuels out to 2035 in Current Trajectory is in the aviation sector, underpinned by increasing mandates and incentives for the use of SAF, especially in the EU. Biofuels also play an expanding role in marine transportation helping to meet regulatory requirements to reduce carbon emissions.

The declining use of liquid fuels in road transport in the second half of the outlook in Current Trajectory, as road vehicles are increasingly electrified (see Oil), also causes the use of biofuels in road transport to fall. As a result, all the growth in biofuels in the latter half of the outlook stems from increasing use in the aviation sector – where it provides around a third of all aviation fuels by 2050 – and, to a lesser extent, in the marine sector.

Biomethane

Biomethane grows rapidly in Current Trajectory, albeit from a low base, increasing by around 15% per year out to 2035, before slowing to around 6% per year between 2035 and 2050. The growing use of biomethane is underpinned by regulations designed to reduce methane emissions from agricultural waste and landfills, incentivising productive use of those emissions. As biomethane is used as a direct substitute for natural gas, its increasing demand is broadly based across all three end-use sectors – industry, buildings and transport. By 2050, biomethane reaches nearly 4% of global natural gas in primary energy.

The growth of modern bioenergy is even more pronounced in Below 2°, underpinned by growing levels of regulatory and policy support. The use of modern bioenergy doubles by 2050, with around half of that growth stemming from biomethane and biofuels.