Coal

The role of coal in the global energy system declines, led by China

Falls in coal demand led by China

In Current Trajectory, global coal consumption begins to slowly decline from the late 2020s, falling by a little over 5% by 2035.

Most of this fall stems from the declining use of coal in China, which falls by around 20% over this period. Around 60% of this fall occurs in the Chinese power sector, as the share of coal in power generation declines markedly – from 55% to 30% – crowded out by increasing solar and wind generation. Coal use in China’s industrial sector also falls as production of steel and cement declines.

The use of coal also falls in developed economies, declining by almost 40% by 2035 in Current Trajectory. As in China, this drop is concentrated in the power sector, as coal is increasingly displaced by solar and wind power.

India’s demand more resilient

The fall in overall coal consumption out to 2035 is ameliorated by increasing coal demand in India, which expands by over 40%. This growth is underpinned by the role of coal in supporting the rapid growth of Indian power generation and, to a lesser extent, industrial output.

The pace of decline in coal consumption accelerates post 2035 in Current Trajectory, with demand down by a further 30% by 2050. As in the first half of the outlook, this fall is dominated by declining use in China and, to a lesser extent, in developed economies.

The fall in coal consumption in Below 2° is more pronounced, with demand down by around 85% over the outlook. As in Current Trajectory, the largest falls in coal demand are in China, as it transitions to other sources of energy. Outside of China, the declines in coal use are more broadly based across both developed and emerging economies, reflecting both the increasing electrification of energy systems and the growing dominance of wind and solar power generation.

Role of coal in energy system declines

By 2050, coal consumption accounts for around 15% of primary energy in Current Trajectory and 5% in Below 2°, down from almost 30% in 2023 (See Energy demand overview).

China also leads fall in global coal production

The dominant role of China in driving the falls in global coal demand are mirrored on the supply side, with China accounting for around 85% of the reduction in global coal production by 2050 in Current Trajectory. By 2050, China accounts for around 30% of global coal production in Current Trajectory, down from over 50% in 2023, with India and other emerging Asian nations overtaking China as the major global centres of coal production.